Joe Quinlan was back in Bellevue on Wednesday to provide Eastside business and community leaders with an even more optimistic 2015 economic forecast than he predicted for the country in 2014.
The Standard & Poor’s rating is up 14 percent since Quinlan, a global wealth and investment management economist for Bank of America, last spoke during the Bellevue Chamber of Commerce’s Eastside Economic Forecast Breakfast in 2013. Microsoft stock is up 35 percent since last November and 2.4 million jobs have been created nationally.
“We’re back on top,” Quinlan said of the United States’ economy, cautioning its continued success depends on a struggling global economy finding a way to rebound. “I don’t want to be on top of a crumbling mountain.”
The European Union is effectively in a recession, he said, and even China and India are showing signs of slowing economic growth.
“Greece is the strongest economy, right now,” Quinlan said of the EU, “and that just makes you sweat as an economist.”
As for the United States, Quinlan says there is no sign of recession on the horizon in 2015, predicting unemployment will dip below 5 percent, however, wage pressures will force companies to become more competitive.
“You’re going to have to start paying up for good people,” he said.
That issue is only compounded by the need for a better educated national workforce, which Quinlan said vocational training and community college partnerships would alleviate some.
“Forty-six million are not ready to compete in the 21st century,” he said.
Quinlan doesn’t expect Congress will tackle tax reform until after the 2016 presidential election, and also said the country needs to focus on trade agreements, immigration reform and fixing its crumbling infrastructure.
A more comprehensive energy policy will be needed as the United States’ oil production continues to boom, causing a price war with Saudi Arabia. American companies and households are currently seeing huge dividends from lower prices, Quinlan added.
He remarked on Bellevue’s development growth and influx of Chinese capital investments, adding he’s never seen as much foreign capital coming into the United States as he has in the past 12 months.
Get the 2015 Eastside Economic Strategy Guide online.
