The economy is starting to pick up, even if it’s at a snail’s pace.

That was the consensus opinion among a panel of speakers at the annual Bellevue Chamber of Commerce Economic Forecast Breakfast, which took place Wednesday at the Hyatt Regency.

Presenters included Bank of America managing director and chief market strategist Joseph Quinlan, Microsoft Corporate Affairs communications manager Scott Selby, and Dick Conway, principal of the economic forecasting firm Conway & Associates.

Conway spoke primarily about the Puget Sound economic outlook.

Never mind that analysts failed to predict the recent economic collapse – Conway’s firm, for example, was off by 33 percent with its last forecast on housing permits.

Conway said it’s hard to anticipate extreme economic downturns because there are relatively few examples to learn from, and those that do exist have all happened for different reasons.

“There has not been a lot of opportunity to forecast economic recession,” he said. “In the Puget Sound region, for example, we’ve had only four major recessions since 1970.”

Conway said the recent economic downturn, frequently termed The Great Recession, is not as troubling for Washington as the “Boeing Bust” of 1969.

The airplane manufacturer’s bad fortune 40 years ago resulted in a 12-percent decrease in employment for the region, whereas the recent recession has caused only a 5-percent drop so far.

Conway said there are signs of an economic upswing, like the stock market rebounding 60 percent since March, and home prices stabilizing in recent months.

But he suggested Western Washington will lag behind the rest of the nation in its recovery, as it does with nearly all economic trends.

Selby talked during the breakfast about innovation acting as an economic driver.

“In the 21st Century, innovation – specifically IT innovation – is a major contributor to economic growth,” he said.

Selby touted Microsoft’s role in this area, noting that the company invests around $5.5 billion annually in research and development in the state of Washington. He also said that the recent launch of the Windows 7 operating system will account for 20 percent of all U.S. job growth in IT for 2010.

Quinlan talked about the economic indicators he looks at most in the banking industry. Among them was unemployment.

Quinlan said the national jobless rate is probably around 17 percent, higher than the 10 percent that is widely reported. He also pressed for improvements in education, noting that well over half of the jobless in the U.S. did not graduate from high school.

“I am worried about our workforce – our school system when it comes to how do you bring these people into the fold,” he said. “Our skilled labor pool only represents 30 percent of the total workforce. We’ve got some work to do there.”

Quinlan also spoke about the conflicted psyche of the American consumer.

“We’re paying for past sins,” he said. “We over leveraged and took on too much credit.”

Quinlan said two things worry him as the nation digs itself out of an economic funk. One was the federal deficit.

“That’s a big issue – the spending,” he said. “The U.S. can’t afford to double down.”

Quinlan also mentioned protectionism as a concern. He said America’s economic recovery will depend as much as anything on the success of developing countries.

“Pray that they buy our cars, get the cokes and the cell phones, and so forth, because we need these people to come along that consumption curve,” he said. “We’ll see how that plays out. It’s very, very important.”

Quinlan noted that there is an aura of fear in Washington, D.C. in regard to China as a rising global power.

“That’s nonsense,” he said. “We have to push back on that because I do think their success is our success. It’s not a zero-sum game.

“China needs us, the world, more than the world needs China. More importantly, we need each other.”