Puget Sound Energy has utilized unrealistic assumptions about demand and supply to assert there could be an energy shortfall by 2018 during extreme weather conditions, resulting in the need to build 18 miles of 230,000-volt transmission lines through our residential neighborhoods.

PSE has not been forthcoming in providing the rationale or data for its assumptions. Because of the opaqueness of the PSE model, Richard Lauckhart and Roger Schiffman, nationally recognized power and transmission planners, recently ran peak load models under various assumptions, exposing the unrealistic assumptions PSE has used to predict an immediate need for new capacity.

To arrive at a potential 2018 shortfall, PSE has assumed demand grows at 2.4 percent per year. Yet, the Northwest Power and Conservation Council says for the next 20 years most electricity needs can be met through conservation. The council also states that since 1995 annual energy load grew at an average rate of only 0.40 percent.

On the supply side, PSE has understated the resiliency/elasticity of our grid. For example, PSE appears to be using a summer rating capacity for its transformers during a winter peak scenario. The winter rating is up to 31 percent higher, significantly increasing the capacity available for winter peak demand.

Using more realistic assumptions, the Lauckhart and Schiffman report shows we have decades before demand exceeds supply capacity.

Scrapping Energize Eastside would save an estimated life-time cost of $1.4-2 billion, preserve the 8,000 trees that would be cut down, eliminate the risk of building transmission lines over the Olympic pipeline and give us time to utilize forthcoming energy technologies which produce less carbon emissions.

Kristi Weir

Bellevue